Supply and Demand, or Greed?
June 16th, 2008I was having trouble finding something to write about, so I thought I would ask the readers for some help.
You see, I don’t know much about economics so I am having trouble understanding the current gasoline prices. I’m hoping that some of you will explain it to me.
First of all we have the oil companies reporting record profits. Now it seems to me that if I manufacture a product and my costs of raw materials, production, and transportation costs $1.00 and I sell my product for $2.00, I make x amount of profit. Now if my costs goes to $2.00, I sell for $3.00 and demand stays the same, I make the same amount of profit.
If the cost of a barrel of oil has gone up and the oil companies are simply passing this increased cost on to us, how are they making record profits?
I think I might know at least part of the answer to this one. Back in the late ‘80’s I worked on contract at a large oil company. At that time oil was going up and was about $15 a barrel. I remember hearing some of the people who worked there say that if oil ever reached $20 a barrel it would be profitable to reopen some of the wells that didn’t produce enough to make it worthwhile to keep them open. They were of the opinion that there would be plenty of oil at that price.
Now if the oil companies are pumping oil that cost them $20 a barrel to produce and selling it for $135 a barrel they would be making record profits wouldn’t they?
Of course we are being told that high prices are a result of supply and demand. Supply is down so price is up.
I went looking for an answer to this and discovered a few interesting things. First of all, according to MasterCard Advisors, a unit of MasterCard Inc., the demand for gasoline is down 5.2% from last years levels. I also discovered a site called This Week in Petroleum. The site is run by the Energy Information Administration, part of the Federal Department of Energy.
According to the various charts and graphs presented there, it appears that supply is up and demand is down, yet prices are at record levels. Demand for gasoline is 9.411 million barrels a day (mbd) compared to 9.487 mbd one year ago. Total supply is 210.1 mbd compared to 201.5 mbd a year ago. This equates to a 22.1 day supply whereas the supply was 21.3 days a year ago.
Production is down this year compared to a year ago. Producers are only producing 8.974 mbd today compared to 9.326 mbd a year ago. Why is this? Have you heard of any refinery problems that would cause them to curtail production? I did read a couple of weeks ago that there were plans to curtail refinery production in order to stop prices from falling.
So in the U.S. at least supply of gasoline is up, demand is down, and price is up. Please explain how this can be.
So what about worldwide oil prices? A source at OPEC says (at bottom of article), “Based on present supply and demand, he said it should be fetching $60-$70 a barrel.” As a matter of fact Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi says that the high prices are a result of investor speculation. It would appear the market is being manipulated in order to profit at our, the common persons, expense.
In order to bring oil prices back down Saudi Arabia is planning to increase production 200,000 barrels a day next month. This in on top of a 300,000 barrel a day increase last month, something I don’t remember hearing anything about in the media. I also didn’t see oil or gasoline prices going down in response to this either.
So what’s going on here? Simple greed? Some economic “fact” that I don’t understand? Is there anything we can do?
I’m beginning to hear some people call for a general strike by the citizens of the world. Would this get the attention of the oil companies? Would this finally get the governments of the world to take some kind of action? Would you take part in such a strike?
